The bad initial forecasts leave a harvest of olive oil with reserved forecast

The olive sector is holding a harvest of olive oil with a forecast reserved for the next 2017/2018 season, which will start from next October with the harvesting of the early harvest and with the subsequent collection of the olive that will be generalized in mid-November .

All the forecasts that have been published so far coincide in indicating that there will be a medium-low harvest with an olive oil production for the next season that will be inferior to the current one, because it will be below the same, in which Almost 1,283,000 tonnes have been obtained in Spain.

IF THE FALLEN IS GENEROUS IN WATER FROM SEPTEMBER OLIVE GROVE CAN BE RECOVERED

With the logics of reserves for a neighboring crop such as the olive grove, whose vegetative development depends to a large extent on the evolution of climatological conditions, all forecasts are in the range of 950,000 and 1,200,000 tons of olive oil.

They blame this fall for the water stress that has dragged the olive grove for several campaigns olive, especially olive groves, and partly irrigated, Although, on the other hand, they admit that if the autumn is generous in water from September the olive grove can recover and experience an improvement in an ostensible way.

It will not be until October when the Andalusian Regional Ministry of Agriculture announces its harvest advance, the denomination of olive and olive oil. Meanwhile, Agro-food cooperatives of Andalusia estimates that production will decline by ten percent in the coming season compared to 2016/2017, while from the Spanish Association of Municipalities of Olive (AEMO) move in the fork of the 950,000 and 1,150,000 tons of olive oil.

From UPA-Jaén they predict that the olive oil harvest may be in the orbit of 1 million tons and consider it difficult for the province of Jaén, the world’s largest producer of this product, to reach half a million tons.

However, the strategic consultant and expert olive oil Juan Vilar and Professor Jorge Pereira estimate a next harvest of olive oil in Spain of 1,200,000 tonnes, slightly more than seven percent less than the current, as revealed in a gauge international.

According to this international figure, world production of olive oil will grow by five percent and caress the 2.7 million tons of olive oil in the total of 57 producing countries, oil that will be obtained in the majority in countries of the world.

European Union, with Spain at the top as a global deposit, despite the slight decline that augurs. While it is time to check the production situation of the next olive oil season, the olive grove is currently in a summer stop waiting for the fruit to grow, in a final stretch of the season in which the average oil price has slightly decreased Of olive oil in the market of origin, waiting to see how the productive potential of the new olive-growing season is presented.

A campaign that in the first nine months (October to June) has sold around 1.1 million tonnes (730,000 for export and 362,000 for the domestic market), imports of almost 71,000 tonnes and stocks below The 600,000 tons, enough to supply the markets as a campaign link between 200,000 and 300,000 tons of olive oil is foreseen.

Autor entrada: Francisco Camacho