The forecast of greater olive oil harvests for the 2017-18 campaign will reduce market tensions

Olive oil prices remain high, although everything indicates that, if it is confirmed that the harvests of the next 2017-2018 season will be higher than the current one, market tensions will be reduced.

At the last meeting of the Consultative Council of the International Olive Council (IOC), which brought together representatives of producers, consumers, industry and commerce in Lisbon, analysts predicted that the next crops will be “good” in most olive-growing countries if accompany the climatic conditions. However, in Spain the uncertainties persist due to the drought, which could dilute these optimistic expectations.

PRICES ARE HIGH, BUT DO NOT REACH THE FOUR EUROS OF SOME WEEKS AGO

Regarding the evolution of the quotations of the product, the bosses of oil mills Infaoliva showed on Thursday 8 that the commercial agents collegiate went out to buy extra virgins from 3.87 euros / kg; Virgins from € 3.77 / kg and lampantes with € 3.72 / kg as a starting point.

On the other hand, the POOLred Information System collects from June 2 to 8 about 52 operations of purchase and sale between mills and trading entities, for something more than 5,000 tons and an average price of 3.91 euros per kilo .

By categories, the extra virgin quoted at 3.96 euros / kg these days; The virgin to 3.85 euros and the lampante to 3.83 euros per kilo. A few days earlier, between May 26 and June 1, the POOLred marked only 32 commercial operations, with 2,039 tons in bulk in total, and an average price of 3.95 euros per kilo, although it varied by categories: Extra virgin amounted to EUR 3,98 / kg; The virgin at 3.85 and the lampante at 3.80 euros per kilo.

About the latest statistics published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Food and Environment (Mapama), virgin olive oil traded between May 29 and June 4, at 392.50 euros / 100 kg in Badajoz, 398 in Ciudad Real; To 398.35 in Córdoba; To 394 in Granada; To 396.70 in Jaén; To 403.33 in Malaga; To 402.36 in Seville, 400 in Tarragona and 396 euros / 100 kg in Toledo. Currently, prices are dropping from last season’s global production, and remain very high, which even causes consumers to migrate to the sunflower.

About the latest statistics published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Food and Environment (Mapama), virgin olive oil traded between May 29 and June 4, at 392.50 euros / 100 kg in Badajoz, 398 in Ciudad Real; To 398.35 in Córdoba; To 394 in Granada; To 396.70 in Jaén; To 403.33 in Malaga; To 402.36 in Seville, 400 in Tarragona and 396 euros / 100 kg in Toledo.

Currently, prices are dropping from last season’s global production, and remain very high, which even causes consumers to migrate to the sunflower.

THE FALL OF PRODUCTION IN SPAIN HAS BEEN 8% WITH REGARD TO THE PREVIOUS CAMPAIGN, WHICH REPRESENTS MORE THAN 50% OF WORLD PRODUCTION

In the current 2016-17 season, the global olive harvest declined by 20%, according to the IOC’s follow-up. Spain reached 1,280,000 tonnes, according to the international body, and although it decreases 8% compared to the previous season, it represents more than 50% of world production.

Italy and Greece fell 61% and 39%, respectively; Portugal decreases by around 30% and the rest of the IOC Member countries, as a whole, fall 7%. Turkey has been the exception, with 24% more. World consumption will exceed production by 13% during the current marketing year, as “demand for olive oil continues to grow” and exceeds supply in the last two five-year periods, according to the Olive Council.

“Olive oil is a product that due to its nutritional properties and health benefits is increasingly present in homes around the world,” he anticipates. The IOC highlights the good performance of exports to third countries, since imports from producing countries have increased by 39% in Australia in the first six months of the marketing year (October 2016-March 2017); 37% in Brazil; 19% in China; 4% in Japan; 2% in Russia; Although they fall 7% year-on-year in the United States. Spain, which has the largest market share in almost all these destinations, was the great beneficiary of this trend.

In any case, the next statistics referenced from April will collect less optimistic data, and may represent a turning point, since the packers have appreciated a contraction of the demand for the high prices of the raw material.

Autor entrada: Francisco Camacho